Many of you go to the NHC website so I won't spend a lot of time going over that. What I will tell you is I'm not convinced soon to be Debby has made the tune to the north. I keep seeing a farther to the west track shift. Let's begin with the NHC info.
Just looking at the NHC cone, one would think nothing has changed. But let's look back on that forecast track centerline since yesterday. We bgin with the forecast track issued yesterday at 4 PM.
The second was from 10 pm last night followed by 4 AM & 10 AM today. What should you see? All of central & south Florida's west coast is no longer in the cone. That doesn't mean you won't have heavy rainfall impacts. You still are on the wet side. But the main wind & surfe impacts should be offshore heading to the Big Bend area.
Note the Spaghetti plots stall Debby over the Carolinas, so those folks should get ready for a heavy rain (10-20"+) event. So should you totally buy into the models? here's my concern.
The NHC position places the center just SE of Havana over land. But here's what I'm seeing.
I see the center still south of Cuba. Until this system gets into the Gulf and Recon can officially find a center to track, I think NHC will eventually keep nudging it farther to the west. that would be great news for central & south Florida. Kind of reminds me of Hurricane Agnes back in 1972, IF the westward shift continues, those of you along the NW Florida beaches should keep paying attention. Remember, the worst impacts are to the right of the centerline, plus computer models have difficulty with weaker ill-defined storms. Next post will be after 4 PM. Stay tuned!
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