Tropical Threats To Japan, Hawaii, Rest of Tropics Staying Quiet

All of the experts, that predicted a hyperactive Hurricane season, have now shifted to warning us that September into October will see a "hurricane orgy" of storms.  They correctly point out that the most active weeks, historically, are the last two weeks in August through the first 2 weeks in October.  Well, this year appears different and the last two weeks in August have been dead.  NHC says no activity is expected during the next 7 days, but I did see where the Euro spins up a storm over the Caribbean in the 8-10 day time frame while the GFS has a storm in the eastern Gulf on day 14.  When those models get inside 7 days and continue to show development, then I'll pay attention.  For now, the only tropical activity is over the western Pacific and near Hawaii. Typhoon Shanshan could batter Japan as a Cat. 3 storm.

The central Pacific has 2 Tropical Storms and one Hurricane.  Hone moved just south of the big Island of Hawaii yesterday while Hurricane Gilma & T.S. Hector will go north of the Islands weakening over cooler waters.  The Atlantic & Caribbean  remain quiet.

No model is developing anything for 7 days.  The upper low over the Gulf is moving inland along the Texas coast bringing them lots of storms. The Heat dome is shifting to our north & east with models weakening it allowing moisture to flow over us on the southern side later this week.

So without any tropical threat, our only rain hope will come from daytime heating typical of late summer.

You can see where the heat dome is shifting eastward.  But note, look at the 75-80 degree dew points into Wisconsin & Minnesota.  It feels worse up there than here!  I've drawn in the low level flow (Lime green) over us with the higher, upper flow in Blue.

After staying in the 80s yesterday, we were back to the mid 90s today.  But look at last year as Hannah Gard showed us on FOX 8.

We had 12 days in August 2023 alone that topped 100+!!!  The bottom graphic clearly has this Summer way less hot.  The light at the end of the hot tunnel is OCTOBER!    But we have 4-6 weeks left of summer heat.

 Finally, we have see some wild fires out West this Summer.  But look at South America.

My guess is these are man made fires as people clear the forests to grow crops?  Understand the need for food.  However, look at the pollution (CO2, Soot particles etc)  affecting many countries.  There must be a better way?  Stay tuned!