As I await the 10 PM advisory, I'm seeing a storm system that is trying to get better organized, but is being hindered by something. The cluster of storms over the northern Gulf has finally weakened. I believe it was this feature that was hindering/competing with Francine for most of today. Well, Francine has it all to herself tonight but, it appears to me, she just hasn't exploded. Could it happen before landfall? Sure and tonight into Wednesday morning will be crucial if she is to strengthen. I begin showing the two features (circles) that clearly has the brighter/colder cold tops around Francine.
Satellite views capture what is a elongated, lopsided storm. The rains we have seen over us today are separate from Francine's circulation as the radar view confirms.
Whatever forms over night and comes our way, is truly coming our way as the latest Spaghetti plots show.
Wednesday will not be a nice day for SE LA/MS. Hopefully all of us are ready for a day (perhaps more) where power will be out and stores will be closed. Here's the 10 PM NHC update. Essentially, they have no major changes.
The NHC centerline appears to not changed at all. Which means we stay on the wet side of Francine, but the eyewall with strongest winds might stay just to the west of a Kenner to Grand isle line. However, I still like the Graf model several station have shown which takes the center south of NOLA. I think the biggest concern will be heavy rain bands that could train for several hours dumping 5-10" of rain. Make no mistake, SE LA/MS will take a good whack from Francine. Tonight, get a good night sleep as Wednesday will not be nice. Stay tuned!
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