As I await the NHC's 4 pm advisory, let me show you what I have done and then we'll get into what I'm seeing. As I mentioned earlier, I am not closing my shutters since I expect wind gusts mainly in the 60-80 mph range over Metairie. If we had a Cat. 3 or higher coming, I would close them. I have stacked my He-Shed with plants and placed others next to my house along with patio furniture. Some of my bigger pots have become too large to move.
It's a shame that these flowers/plants will not look the same on Thursday. I'll have before and after pictures. the bottom picture is my 3 hanging baskets I've place on the ground behind my He-Shed for protection. I'm as ready as can be. So here's what I'm seeing that's different.
The storm cluster over the northern Gulf has weakened while there has been a burst of storms around the center of Francine. Does this indicate rapid strengthening is beginning? Radar sure doesn't look impressive and there is no lightning around the center. Here's the new NHC 4 PM info, which most of you already have seen.
So what has changed? 1) Sustained winds have NOT increased, but pressure has fallen slightly. 2) Forward motion has increased (good) to 10 mph to the NE. 3) The NHC centerline track has shifted slightly (10-20 miles) and is east of BTR. My feeling is this trend will continue with the centerline track ending up near the western part of Lake P. That will bring the greatest impacts (to the right of center) right over SE LA & MS. In fact, NHC has extended the storm surge warning to include Alabama so impacts will be well outside the cone.
My feelings are these surge number are the worst case scenario. Unless Francine explodes in the next 12-18 hours, surge numbers (water over land) should be less than forecasted. Wave heights in the southern Gulf have remained the same.
However, let's not think Wednesday will be a picnic in the park. The worst part of the day will happen along the coast by 9AM, spreading over the city by noon and tapering off by 8-9 PM. This will be a quick mover with clearing skies on Thursday. So what could change the NHC predictions?
There is an upper trough that is coming across Texas. That should accelerate Francine to the NE. NHC expects rapid intensification, I'm not so sure as the storm moves into higher upper shear. Either that will ventilate it (strengthen it), or it will prevent Francine from becoming more than a low end Cat. 1. We hope for the latter. Also, just me, but what if that eastward trend continues? Could Francine's center stay to our south? That would take the greater (worse) impacts to MS?AL coast? Hard to go against models at 24 hours from landfall. Here's something to watch. The surface winds currently out of the east.
IF they go more NE instead of SE, then the center of Francine could pass to our south. IF NHC is correct, winds should turn SSE tomorrow. Tonight will be rainy at times, but that's the old cluster of storms ahead of Francine's circulation.
Rain totals could reach 4-8" so expect some street flooding. Hopefully it will be spread out over many hours?
After a rainy, windy Wednesday, the sun should return for Thursday PM into the weekend. Finally, I found this painting on Brenda's website (https://www.brendabreck.com) that fits tomorrow's weather.
She calls it "Twirling". I'd suggest you don't wear a big dress like that! To reach out to Brenda, email her at brendabreck@gmail.com. I might post after ten IF there are major changes. Stay tuned!
Information on Francine here
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