Francine Is Coming, But Where? Focus On Western Gulf

 The only thing that has changed over night is the increase in storms over the western Gulf. NHC on their 8 AM T.W.O, indicated a Recon plane will be investigating the broad disturbance this afternoon.  They have upped their chances for development to 90%, which translates to a storm is coming to the western & northern Gulf during the next 2-3 days.  Watches may have to go up as soon as 4 PM for the lower Texas coast. The old frontal boundary finally has pushed offshore allowing sunshine and drier air over us.

If you compare the satellite views from yesterday, clearly something is forming over the SW Gulf.  I still see the old Invest 90-L SE of Brownsville with the new Invest 91-L in the Bay of Campeche. Both lows are competing to survive and eventually we'll get one center that will begin to intensify.  The Spaghetti plots are shifted slightly farther to the east and that brings greater impacts towards us.

Will Francine form in the Gulf?  Not so far since NHC has increased chances for development with the two areas out in the Atlantic.  Whether it's Francine or Gordon, our focus must be on the Gulf.  Next post will come after 4 PM.  Go Saints!  Stay tuned!