After getting data from the Recon aircraft, NHC has decided to start issuing advisories on soon to be Tropical Storm Francine. They are calling the disturbance PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) # 6 even though the Recon plane could NOT find a closed surface low. NHC believes it's only a matter of time and the PTC designation allows them to start issuing watch advisories for coastal locations south of Brownsville. Whatever is going to develop won't happen right away until a surface center forms. So let's begin the storytelling. For the first time in 3 days, we saw sunshine!
On the color infrared view, there are several clusters of storms, but they are not concentrated around where the possible center is located. I'll be watching for that to happen tonight or tomorrow. Here's the official NHC track forecast.
My viewers always followed the centerline position to see which way NHC is trending regarding storm motion. RIGHT NOW, the initial track brings the centerline just west of Lake Charles. We all know that will not stay that way. Any shift to the west will bring greater impacts to the upper Texas Coast (Houston) while an eastward shift will bring the greater impacts to south LA/MS. What kind of impacts? NHC does project PTC # 6 to become a Cat. 1 Hurricane before landfall and that could mean significant wind & surge issues to the right (east) of the centerline. Spaghetti models are clustered east of Houston and west of Lafayette.
RIGHT NOW, it appears we're in for another soaking here with 4-6+" likely and 6-10+" possible. Arrival time for the heaviest rains will be Wednesday into Thursday. Confidence in this initial forecast is LOW since 1) we don't have a defined surface locations and 2) the upper trough has lifted out leaving weak steering over the northern Gulf.
So what can I say with some confidence? 1) whatever might develop, we will have all of Monday & Tuesday to prepare our property & stock up on supplies. Plus, 2) based on the current upper SW wind shear, It is highly unlikely to see rapid intensification Monday or Tuesday. That might change as she approaches the coast on Wednesday. 3) This will not be an evacuation storm, except for those outside the levee protection system. It will not be an IDA or Katrina according to all model guidance.
So what should you be doing tomorrow? The usual common sense stuff. I have water & food already so I won't get trapped in the mad rush at the stores. I'll wait until Tuesday to start preparing my yard for high winds. So let's chill for tonight and Monday until NHC gets a better handle on what might be coming. As always, it's time to say some prayers. One of my wife's art work is called "Prayer Sticks".
She crafted them from actual wood and added a soothing baby blue tone. If you like her work, you can see more on her newly constructed website at https://brendabreck.com. For now, let us all get our "prayer teams" going to ask that this storm remain weak. Stay tuned!
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