Wow, so much uncertainty, where do I begin? First what we know. 1) Francine has NOT strengthened into a hurricane as expected last night. 2) She took an unexpected jog to the right overnight forcing NHC to again shift the centerline track back towards us. 3) Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended to the AL/FL line. Here are the newest graphics beginning with the east jog in the track.
The middle graphic is the 4 AM centerline track forecast followed by the 10 AM forecast track. It has moved from over Lafayette last night at 10 PM to now over Baton Rouge. Will this eastward trend continue? I think so, which means greater impacts for SE LA/MS/AL with lesser impacts to the west of the track. That's why warnings have been extended eastward...Pay Attention MS/A!. The deep blue colors are for Tropical Storm Warnings.
Don't be surprised to see Francine go even farther to the east outside the cone. It's a complicated environment to make a forecast. Look at the water vapor with dry air north of the storm.
The yellow dashes show where an upper trough is approaching which should accelerate Francine's forward speed. But what is the elephant in the room/Gulf? Nobody is taking about it.
There has been this persistent cluster/glob of storms over the northern Gulf. This has robbed Francine's circulation and allowed some drier air to flow in between the systems. Until the northern Gulf storms weaken, Francine will continue to struggle. Note where all the lightning strikes are. Not with Francine, but with the northern Gulf storms. My thinking is Francine will try to follow/be drawn into that weakness along the northern Gulf. I will not be surprised to see her track end up over us or to our east. Remember that centerline track location determines who will get the worse impacts.
Our current rains are NOT connected to Francine's circulation. NHC is still predicting 4-6"+ rain totals for us. I'm encouraged that Francine is struggling, but I'm discouraged by the eastward shift in the track. I will use this afternoon to get my potted plants into my He-Shed, but I am not going up my ladder to close my shutters since it appears winds will not get worse than 60-80 mph in gusts. Expect widespread power outages beginning Wednesday morning when we all should be "hunkered down". Next post after the 4 PM advisory.
Information on Francine here
No comments:
Post a Comment