Francine Struggles To Organize, Still Expected To Be Cat. 2

 Let me begin by admitting an error in my last post.  In my haste to get out the blog, I used a wrong graphic on the centerline track position.  I talked about a westward shift, but then posted the same 10 AM advisory instead of the 4 PM.  Here's what I should have posted. The top is the centerline track issued at 10 am.

The bottom view was from 4 PM and the track clearly had shifted back west of Lafayette.  So does the new 10 pm track continue that westward trend?

Nope, the latest has been nudged slightly eastward centered right over Lafayette.  What concerns me is tonight's spaghetti plots.

As you can see, they appear to also have shifted back eastward.  We don't want to see that since the farther Francine goes to the east, the greater the impacts for SE LA/MS.  Farther west means lesser impacts here.  NHC basically kept the same official track.

Nothing changed regarding watches or warnings and we need to pay attention on Tuesday if the centerline track shifts closer.  Tonight I'm seeing a struggling system.

The main cluster of T-Storms has lifted to the north and is pulling away from the surface low.  IF Francine was getting stronger, we'd see that bright red/orange area around her center.  That isn't happening yet.

Brownsville radar has the center to the SE, but notice all the lightning is with that glob on the northern side.  NHC still believes Francine will rapidly intensify tomorrow but WEAKEN as she approaches landfall on Wednesday.  RIGHT NOW, the worst impacts will be to our west, but that could change.  I'll try to do an early morning update before my golf tee time of 8:52.  If that northern cluster of storms continues heading our way, golf will be a rain check.  Stay tuned!