Francine takes A Jog To West, What Does That mean?

 I'm writing this ahead of the NHC 4 PM advisory.  What I'm seeing is Tropical Storm Francine has moved LEFT of the NHC track forecast from 10 AM.  That might be just a relocation of the center based on Recon data, or could it be that the earlier eastward shift has ended.  Let me show you.

You can see that jog in the past track and now the center is showing up on Brownsville's radar. That west jog has brought some of Francine's circulation to the Mexican & south Texas coasts.  IF that trend continues, will NHC shift the track back to the west?  Probably not as NHC does not want to be flip-flopping on their forecast.  My guess is they will keep the centerline track basically the same until they get more Recon data this evening along with later model runs.  So while I wait for the advisory, I was browsing my wife's website (https://brendabreck.com) and came across a recent painting that depicts what the weather for the next few days will look like.

She calls it "Rushing Waters" and that might happen if we get the predicted 4-6"+ rainfall.  You can find all of her artwork on her website, or you can e-mail her (brendabreck@gmail.com).

The satellite structure/appearance of Francine is showing an organizing disturbance, but it's getting very close to the lower Texas coast.

I don't see any upper trough coming out of the Rockies that would turn/pick up Francine and turn her our way.  But that's just what I'm seeing and it may mean nothing.  Let's see what NHC does at 4 PM.  Here is their updated track.

Well, as expected, no major change in the track.  However, the comparison from 10 AM does show that the eastward trend from previous advisories has ended as the centerline is identical with the 10 AM on top and the 4 PM on bottom.

That is good news for us as it would keep the eyewall with strongest winds west of Metro New Orleans.  This is a storm where you don't want to evacuate to the west as Baton Rouge will get higher winds that us.  I feel pretty strongly that the only ones that need to evacuate are those outside the levee protection & low lying areas of St. Mary's, Terrebonne & Lafourche parishes.  Surge will be a concern along the coast with highest surges west of the mouth of the River.

The heaviest rain amounts will be to our west and offshore.  Due to the increasing forward movement tomorrow & Wednesday, rainfall totals will not be as bad as a slower moving storm.  Bottom line, I'm feeling better RIGHT NOW as it appears the eastward track shift has stopped.  But that could change tomorrow.  Let's try and remember Francine is expected to become a Cat. 2 Hurricane, but she will NOT become a Katrina, Ida or Laura.  Let's keep the prayer teams working as we pay attention to later forecasts.  FOR NOW, I'm going to wait until Tuesday PM before I decide if I need to close my shutters.  I will move some of my potted plants inside my He-Shed for protection this evening.

Our stay in place day will be  Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.  I'll be watching to see if there are any track shifts this evening.  If so, I'll post after 10 PM.