Helene Jogs West Before Making Turn To North, Still Florida's Storm

Afternoon Satellite loops clearly show an organizing & strengthening Storm heading for the tip of the Yucatan, a bit farther to the west than earlier NHC guidance.  During the last 2-3 hours, a more northerly turn has begun.

Despite tracking on the west side of previous cone forecasts, NHC isn't changing they're thinking regarding future landfall in the Big Bend of Florida.

Hurricane warnings have gone up for that region and models are tightly clustered.  It's difficult to challenge so many models.

Rapid intensification is expected as Helene passes right over the "Loop Current" of deepest oceanic heat content.  So why won't Helene make a turn towards Louisiana?   Simply upper steering.  We begin with the current setup.

Helene has been moving more westward under an upper high to the north.  A deep upper low is diving down over the Plains.  As the high weakens and shifts farther to the east, Helene will head to the north tonight and on Wednesday.  But as the upper low reaches Louisiana BEFORE Helene can threaten us, winds over the northern Gulf will shift from the SW to the NW turning Helene away.  Here are the upper-air computer forecasts.

The top graphic is current followed by the middle valid for Wednesday PM with the bottom valid for Thursday PM.  Not only will this upper low keep Helene away, it's dragging a cool front with lower humidity behind it.

This is not an Arctic front coming, but look at those dew points in the 50s across Oklahoma!

That is great feeling air coming for Thursday through Saturday.  So all eyes will be on Helene and the Southeastern states as Helene roars to the NE. Pay attention Tampa Bay.  Hopefully, that centerline track will not shift back toward you.  Still, you'll be on the wet side.

Any of you traveling to Atlanta for the Saints game on Sunday beware.  Friday will be a difficult travel day with Saturday & Sunday turning much nicer.  Finally,

IF you're heading to the beaches this week, you should be OK IF you stay from Panama City westward. The sky should look like the above picture Brenda calls "Sun on Sands".  For more of Brenda's artwork, check out her website at www.brendabreckart.com.  Those of you in Helene's path, you still have time to prepare.  Stay tuned!