Labor Day Weekend Ending Near Perfect

 Despite all the doom & gloom on Friday regarding this weekend, reality turned out to be the opposite with few showers, more sunshine and no flooding.  So what happened?  Why were the forecasts so wrong? I think the problem lies in the computer models that do not handle weaker, ill-defined systems very well. In addition, I can't remember a late August or early September time frame when we see so many swirls/rotations, but nothing develops.  After all, this is the heart of the Hurricane Season.  Let me show you the swirls. There are 3 clusters of T-Storms on the Gulf Satellite view. I'll begin with Florida.

I found 5, FIVE, swirls, but none have any concentration of storms around it. Same hold true with the Gulf, However...

The more numerous T-Storms are centered around the upper swirl due south of Louisiana and NOT with where NHC has the surface low SW of Houston.  The reason we dried out this weekend is that upper low has drifted farther offshore allowing some drier air to filter in.  My concern (as always in Aug-Sept) is any rotation moving over the warm Gulf waters bears watching.  Models don't develop anything.

One of the first signs of development often are increasing winds & waves.  Note the 4 foot wave heights east of Florida while the Gulf is essentially flat.  Surface pressures are lower so let's keep paying attention this week.  What might happen is the Gulf area of disturbed weather will start moving back over us as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north.  We might return to a heavy rain threat Wednesday into Thursday as our local NWS  office outlined in their discussion.  NHC also continues to watch other areas, but nothing seems to be happening.

The GFS finally develops the wave approaching the islands late next week, but for now the wave is just a wave.  So let's look ahead for this week.

We do have a real front heading our way.  Labor Day here looks mostly dry and hot with rain chances increasing late Tuesday.  IF the front has enough push, we could see some drier air arrive (cooler nights) by late Friday into next weekend.? But before then, we're not done with the 90s.

Those rain chances for Wednesday into early Friday could go up, but look at next weekend!  I will be watching the Gulf this week, but for right now nothing is developing.  Happy Labor Day America! Stay tuned!