NHC has started issuing advisories on PTC # 19 since they believe it will become our next named storm and will be nearing land areas within 48 hours. There have been several BIG differences since yesterday in model thinking, but let's begin with NHC's initial track forecast, which is now much farther to the south of yesterday's model runs.
A more southern track will bring soon-to-be Sara very close to the northern coast of Honduras, stalling for several days before moving into Belize early next week. The Spaghetti Plots do bring the system back over the southern Gulf, but history has shown past storms moving over the Yucatan for any extended time have trouble regaining strength. NHC is not making soon-to-be Sara a major Hurricane, keeping her a strong Tropical Storm due to the closeness of land masses. Regardless, it will have major impacts on northern Honduras, especially to the islands (Roatan) to the north.
NHC cautions that the intensity forecast may have to be revised upward if the system stays far enough offshore.
Clearly on the infrared color view, PTC 19 has a burst of storms near its center. Fortunately for us, it's November and we have more fronts coming. They will block Sara from impacting the northern Gulf. South Florida needs to keep paying attention, although models have backed off forming a major storm early next week as it approaches you. Our local attention is on the first cold front coming through overnight. The upper energy is lifting far to our north, but we have seen periods of showers today. The heaviest storms have stayed to our north under the splitting of the upper wind flow.
Once the upper trough passes to our east before daybreak, slightly cooler but much drier air will make for a great stretch of weather throughout this weekend.
Temps. back over Texas are still in the 70s & 80s, so we won't need sweaters and jackets tomorrow as sunshine will quickly warm things back up. But look at those dew points in the 40s & 50s. That's delightful, good-feeling air. Based on satellite & radar views, most of us are done with the rain.
It'll take several more hours before the rains clear the North Shore & Mississippi Gulf Coast.
We should be in for a long stretch of dry weather into next week. Finally, remember the current upper pattern?
The bottom graphic is the upper air flow at 18-20,000 feet that is valid for next Wednesday. Burr, that's a cold shot of cold Canadian air coming down. How cold? Glad you asked. Look at Alaska & Canada.
That's 20+ BELOW ZERO in Alaska. Get those sweaters and heavy coats ready Gang. By the way, on this "Weather Impact/Alert/Warning day", Marvin & I played 9 holes of golf. Sure it was damp & wet, but we could have played the full 18. The really heavier rains didn't arrive until after 2 PM. Stay tuned!
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