Sara Expected To Become Major Hurricane, Gets Into SE Gulf Next Week

 Historically, the Caribbean is still an active area for storm formation and this year is no exception.  Rafael developed last week and all indications/models are suggesting Sara will form later this week.  In fact, models suggest Sara will be come another major Hurricane and move into the southern Gulf for next week.  As we saw with Rafael, the western and northern Gulf become hostile environments for storms due to increasing westerly upper winds that blow apart even major storms.  Here's what we know.

The top graphic is the Oceanic Heat Content that has cooled over the Gulf, but remains high in the Caribbean.  That is where NHC has highlighted an area for development. There already is a well defined swirl over the western Caribbean, but that is not where NHC believes Sara will form.

They have labeled the X south of Jamaica Invest 99-L and the two main models indicate south Florida may be at risk for NEXT week.  We begin with the GFS solutions that has Sara a hurricane by this Saturday. The bottom graphic is valid for Monday 11-18.

It stays stalled over the western Caribbean or two days before heading into the SE Gulf by NEXT Tuesday.

The bottom view is valid for NEXT Wednesday IF you believe that the model will be correct.  That far out,  uncertainty is much higher.  The Euro has the storm farther to the south.

Bottom line, it's November and this will not be our storm as a stronger cold front sweeps it far to the east.  So let's get back to our local forecast.   NWS in their discussion indicates the chance for strong storms tomorrow ahead of our next cold front.  I don't see it as the upper energy coming out from the Rockies will go far to our north.

We do have a lot of low level moisture in place, but I just don't feel the ingredients are there for severe/strong storms.  But the models indicate that so all the local stations have their First Alert,Impacts,Warnings out for Wednesday.  We'll see, but I have a morning tee time for 8:52 AM and hope to golf.

I would love for any of the local weathercasters to show me why Wednesday will have severe storms, instead of just showing us "the models".   Every station is the same.   I always told you the whys of the forecast and not just the what.

While you see 80% chance for rain on Wednesday, remember that has nothing to do with time.  It does not mean it will rain 80% of the day.  At least I hope not!  Stay tuned!