Back in April & May, all the "experts" predicted a "Hyperactive Hurricane Season from Hell". Most indicated totals would be 20-25, with several calling for 25-30+. NOAA officially was the last to come out with their prediction calling for 17-23. The season began active early on, but then surprisingly went quiet during the heart of the season. Action picked up again late with our latest named storm (Sara) being # 18. For some folks (Florida, NC.SC) it has been a "season from Hell". But total-wise, we have yet to reach last year's total number of names (19). It's not about numbers, but LOCATIONS. Back to Tropical Storm Sara's circulation which is looking more like an organizing system.
But the color view shows no real compact cluster of storms around her center, probably due to her interaction with nearby Honduras. NHC predicts her future track parallel to the coast heading into Belize.
The Spaghetti plots do bring what's left of Sara into the southern Gulf early next week. However, note they have reduced her to a Depression by then and the increasing westerly upper wind shear will not allow her to regain much strength. Some of her low-level moisture could move over us by Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front late Wednesday.
The Lady sang back in October and Sara will NOT come up to the northern Gulf coast as anything but a rain system, if that. Most of her moisture is likely to be swept eastward into Florida.
Today's air felt much different as 70+ dew points were pushed far offshore. The next 2-3 days will feel great, IF you're dressed for the morning chill. Expect 40s North Shore and 50s south away from Lake P. With the northerly winds, the muggies are gone for several days.
That sharp drop in temps late next week is because of the flip in the upper air pattern. Here is the difference from today to next Thursday. The top has the upper low over Ohio.
Wow! IF that proves to be a reality, late next week, we could be seeing the first freeze of the season for the North Shore? The upper flow is way deeper and I'm already looking for my Winter gear! Finally, the new drought monitor is out today showing many areas over the eastern states needing rain.
Much-needed rainfall is falling from Florida northward into Michigan. With the upper flip coming, expect more rainy systems coming to the Northeast. For us, our next rain threat is not until Tuesday at the soonest. Get out and enjoy Fall in the South! Stay tuned!
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