Because of the shift back to standard time, NHC advisories are out at 3 PM instead of 4 PM. You've seen the latest into that has weakened Rafael back down to a Cat. 2 after having winds to 120 mph earlier. All of that was expected and the only thing yet to be determined is where will the leftover circulation of Rafael end up? Will it stall tomorrow and then drift to the south as NHC says? Or will it drift to the north making for a rainy Saturday night into Sunday here? here's the NHC's thinking.
Spaghetti Plots still have some models turning to the north and I just have a hard time buying into the NHC solution (bottom view) of the left turn to the south. Whatever solution proves reality, Rafael will be a weak sister to the storm that was over the loop current yesterday. My preferred idea is his remains will be drawn northward as the Colorado upper low lifts out.
It's an early-season snowstorm out west while the SE is still summer-like.
We have lots of clouds around now, but very little rainfall. That will change for tomorrow night into Sunday.
.jpg)
Again, let's pay attention to where Rafael goes during the day on Saturday. IF he heads northward towards us, prepare for some heavy rainy periods. IF he drifts to the south, we'll stay humid, but mostly dry. A somewhat stronger cool front may arrive for later next week. No need for Sweaters or jackets yet. Stay tuned!
No comments:
Post a Comment