54 years ago, I was completing my AIT (Advance Infantry Training) at Camp Pendleton in Oceanside, California. It was not a happy time in my life as I was separated from my wife back in Whiting, Indiana. My military training was a sacrifice, but nothing compared to those who lost their lives in battle. I'm proud to call myself a Marine (not former) on this day after the 249th Birthday of the founding of the Marine Corps and salute all those who have served our country to keep it free.
Our local NWS office has a nice salute out to 4 of their employees who have served. Veterans Day is a day we thank all those who protect us from our enemies. And one of our enemies is Tropical Weather where NHC is outlining yet another area for possible development.
Several models are hinting another named storm (Sara) will develop and move into the Southeastern Gulf over the weekend. Before anyone starts putting out info about a threat to us, let me squash that idea from the get go. It's November, the upper air westerlies will turn anything that forms to the east away from us. Here's the upper pattern for the next 10 days, beginning with today at the top.
The bottom view is valid late Wednesday with an upper tough digging into the central Plains. That trough will bring us a weak cold front. but the real cold stays well to our north. That trough does not dig into the SE. By Saturday, an upper ridge is back over us keeping us summer-like. Troughs are off both coasts.
The middle view is valid for next Wed. 11-20 with the bottom valid for next Thursday. Now that's a real dip in the jet stream! Note, if Sara tries to creep into the Gulf, that digging upper trough will turn her quickly towards south Florida. Such a deep dip will also finally bring much colder air to us. But that's 8-9 days away. In the short term this week, the cold remains up in Canada.
The air is getting colder across the northern tier of states and we will see a weak front pass late Wednesday night. But today's surprise relief (Sunshine, lower dew points) was totally under-forecasted by the models. The remains of Rafael's circulation are down off the LA/MS coasts.
I expect some of the showers east of the mouth of the River will work back towards us by late tomorrow. Rain chances go even higher ahead of the front on Wednesday before we dry out for the weekend.
I don't see sweaters and heavy-coat weather until later NEXT week. The front for Thursday will be only slightly cooler but way drier behind it. Finally, if you're lucky enough to live near mountains, here's a view of the weekend snow cover from the valleys below. This is from my oldest son (Rob) who lives in Albuquerque.
The bottom view is from Colorado, where Denver received 20" of snow on Saturday. Their high today was near 60 so much of it melted. You can see the higher mountain tops west of Evergreen are totally snow-covered. We can only dream! Stay tuned!
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