Sara hugs Honduran Coast, Stalls Out Creating Massive Flood Threat.

 While I'm focused on Sara someday trying to reach the southern Gulf, I remember the strongest major November Hurricane in the Gulf called Kate (1985).  Kate formed on November 15th and raced westward into the SE Gulf as a Cat. 3 storm on the 20th.  She aimed for the mouth of the River before running into the November "wall of wind shear" that turned her to the NE. Her track brought her over Tallahassee knocking out power for many days.   1985 was quite a hurricane season with Elena doing a loop over the eastern Gulf and Juan making a double loop along our coast.  Here's Kate's track.

As you can see, we have no Kate this year.  Instead there's a strong low spinning off the East coast and Tropical Storm Sara down over the Caribbean.

The daylight (Visible) satellite has a nice circulation with Sara.  But the color infrared clearly has half the system over land and most of the T-Storms located well north of the center.  Early on, models developed Sara into a Cat. 3 storm, but they no longer do that.

NHC indicates Sara's circulation may not survive the trip over the Yucatan, but models do take her back over the southern Gulf early next week.  That November "Wall of wind shear" quickly turns whatever is left of Sara to the NE towards central Florida.  Right now, it appears the only issue with her future will be some heavy tropical downpours where ever she ends up. Our weather will stay nice this weekend as an upper ridge moves across us.   But look how the models flip-flop next week.

You can see today's upper winds at 500 mb.  Now look at how much that changes next week.

The top view is valid for next Thursday with the bottom valid for next Saturday.  Both show a deep trough over the East which should result in much colder air coming down to us.  But not this weekend.

The coldest air is now to our east & north so look for a slow warm up into next week.  

The cold will arrive in waves with the first on Wednesday followed by a colder shot by Friday.  Get the heavy weather gear ready.  I'll be checking out my garden to see what potted plants I might move into my He-Shed for next weekend, if needed. Stay tuned!