All Snow, Expect Slow Go Texas To The Carolinas

Several posts ago, I mentioned I was "hitching my wagon" to the GFS forecast model.  I said IF the model was correct, we could see 3-5" over the North Shore with 1-3" South of Lake Pontchartrain on Tuesday.  I have seen nothing to change that thinking.  The Polar Vortex is over Hudson Bay with the upper flow coming straight down from the North Pole.  I often talk about the "core of the cold" staying to our north & east.  Not this time.

 

My three key cities have all gotten into the core of the cold so the idea that we will be too warm for snow does not seem to be an issue.  So now the issue is how much snow.  This will easily be the most snow many of you have seen in your lifetime here in SE LA/MS  Here's some estimates beginning with FOX 8.

Now let's look at the NWS estimates.

Pretty similar, and this will be a widespread event from Texas to the Carolinas.  It won't get here until daybreak on Tuesday, but NWS has already put us under a Winter Storm Warning.(pink colors) for Tuesday.

So where is this coming from?  It's an upper disturbance diving down the northerly flow over the Rockies.  That will cause an over running situation beginning in Texas on Monday.

Let me be clear, there is nothing there yet.  Models have been consistent with this event and I see zero reason to disagree with the NWS forecast.  We will likely start out with some freezing drizzle before daybreak on Tuesday with light snow falling in the 6-9 AM time frame.  The heaviest snows should fall between 9-3 PM.  Monday travel here will be fine.  I ask everyone (except first responders/medical personnel etc) to "hunker down" and stay home on Tuesday.  In the short term, it's about the cold.

This is very dry air moving in with single digit dew points.  That will allow temps to plummet tonight to below freezing in most locations.  Remember the Pipe Rule.

We are still well above freezing and should be until after midnight.  I suggest you thinly drip your water (half hot/cold) before you go to bed.

So all you snow geeks, get giddy, it's coming!  For the rest of us, let's use common sense and don't put your life at risk.  As you can see, by next weekend we're back to near 70!  Stay tuned!