Internet Hype Rocking, Arctic Blast Coming South, Snow & Ice Storm Here?

 When computer models are consistent with day to day model runs, one has to start thinking they could be correct.  We often talk about model forecasts with hurricanes having more UNCERTAINTY the further out in time they go.  Same holds true with winter type storms.  7-10 days out, probably won't happen. 4-6 days out, it could happen,  Inside 5 days, start thinking it's gonna happen.  Look at some of the internet chat.

The bottom graphic is valid for NEXT Tuesday (7 days out) that has the Arctic front down deep in the Gulf with over-running frozen precip. breaking out across Texas into Louisiana.  All you snow geeks, there certainly is hope, but first it has to get cold up in Canada. Right now, the storm track over the Pacific is bringing a gush of very mild air to much of Canada.

That flow has much of Canada above zero with many locations above freezing.  So where's this Arctic cold coming from?  According to models, it's in Siberia and will spread across the North Pole into Canada.

It is 45-50 below zero over there, but are models correct in taking that air towards us?  Right now, the upper pattern doesn't favor that with the flow across us from the WSW.  The lobe of the Polar Vortex is over eastern Canada keeping the Arctic chill over the northern states & Great Lakes.

In the short term (3-5 days) our temperatures will slowly warm to above normal before the bottom falls out next week.  I've moved all my plants back outside from my He-Shed. There is a weak wave moving cross the Gulf that might give us some showers tomorrow.

Rainfall amounts should stay light since a wedge of drier air (dew points teens & 20s) has sunk down to the coast east of us.  Skies will clear for Thursday as we warm back into the 60s.

We will have time Friday & Saturday to get our yards ready for next week's freeze.  The key for snow on the South Shore is for us to get into the real cold and then have an upper disturbance come along spreading moisture over the cold air.  7 days out, here's the NWS surface forecast.

Humm, boy that's close.  Here's the FOX 8 model forecast.

The pink colors designates mixed precipitation.  Let's keep checking those models.  the closer it gets, the certainty increases!  Finally, I've mentioned Breda has an art show this Thursday evening at Degas Gallery 39039 Magazine Street.  Here are some of her works you can come see.

I'm so proud of how her artwork has evolved over the past 2 years.  Come by and say hello, have some bubbly & some snacks.  Hope to see you between 6-8 PM.  Weather looks great!  Stay tuned!