Weather Cycles, Cold Comes To Halt, Record Warmth Into Next Week

 If you followed me over the last 5 decades, you know I'm a big believer in weather CYCLES.  The late Dr. Bill Gray pointed out the "hurricane cycles" at a weather conference back in the 80s.  My geologist son (Justin) has often pointed out in rock formations the climate CYCLES that caused the various different layers deposited over the centuries.  This morning Zack Fradella showed this graphic of the past 15 days that clearly showed the up & down temperature CYCLE. 

Rarely is the temperature "normal" or average, but typically goes from one extreme to the other.  Just looking at this graphic, and projecting out another 7-10 days, one could see that we can expect a real cool down coming for the 2nd half of February.  Don't put your winter gear away yet.  More cold is to come, but I don't expect any major pipe busting freezes.  Perhaps a light freeze and that is why you shouldn't plant those tomatoes.  The current pattern blocks the cold air from reaching us.

Until things change out over the Pacific, we'll continue to see Spring-like weather across the south. Currently we have a broad upper trough that is bringing a series of storms into the West coast and forced the Arctic air into eastern Canada.

It would take a deep East Coast upper trough to bring that chill back into the lower 48.  Here's the upper pattern for the next 2 weeks beginning with today.

The middle graphic is valid for next Wednesday with the upper flow still from the SW over us.  The bottom is valid for the following Sunday (2-16) with a trough over the East, but not very deep.  That will make us cooler, but not frigid.  

Dallas has recovered back into the 60s, but that's as far to the south the cold will get.  It's on full retreat as the frontal zone moves back to the north. It's very much Winter-like in Kansas City (32) and Philadelphia (29).

I don't see any sea fog on the daylight view(except along the Mississippi coast), but with dew points in the 60s, conditions are there for some dense fog later tonight & Thursday AM.

The next 4-5 days will see morning lows higher than the normal/average daily highs!  Wanting more cold to return?  Remember, the weather runs in CYCLES.  It'll be back just in time for the Mardi Gras parades.  Bummer!  Stay tuned!