The local NWS office along with SPC is highlighting a severe weather event for Tuesday afternoon and evening here and to areas to our north. The trigger will be a powerful upper low over California that will cross the Rockies tomorrow and head into the Plains on Tuesday. Here's the set up and the SPC Severe Outlooks.
The middle has the level 2 severe risk centered on TX/OK with the bottom shifting eastward and increasing the risk for Tuesday. We're all in the level 2 risk for Tuesday PM with parts of the far North Shore in level 3.
Yes the level 3 (enhanced) risk is centered to our north, but not by much. Our local NWS has some nice graphics detailing the event.
Of course, it's all about timing and what I've seen is the line of storms won't reach us until after all the parades are over (4-8 PM) That doesn't mean there will be no weather issues as wind gust over 40 could certainly be hazardous to floats & riders alike. Local officials may have to make some tough decisions?
The upper system firing off the storms in OK/TX today will weaken overnight as the stronger West coast system heads our way. You can already see the surge in low level moisture in south Texas with dew points in the mid 60s while we're still in the 30s.
The parades tonight and on Monday will have no issues. Mardi Gras morning will already start seeing increasing winds. It will be a very warm (75-80) & muggy day with the late afternoon and evening being the most likely time for severe weather. Let's hope the western system is a little slower so most of Mardi Gras stays dry. Tomorrow's model runs will give us a better idea on timing. Stay tuned!
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