Early Hurricane Outlook, River Crest Coming, Dry Week ahead

The 2025 National Hurricane Conference begins this week here in New Orleans. I went to this conference for 38 years to learn the latest from the NHC specialists, but more importantly to learn who they were so that when we were threatened, I was talking to a colleague and not a stranger.  Don't think that's the case anymore.  Now, it's more about models and not people.  In the past, the preseason predictions were announced at the conference.  Not anymore, as they have been out for weeks.  Here's the forecast from Colorado State University.

There are many others, but they are all in the same ballpark, calling for a slightly above normal season.  Should that mean anything to you?  Nope.  Since they can't pinpoint location, it's basically useless.  You'll never see them issue a forecast for fewer/below normal storms.  My gut tells me this could be one of those years.  Should that mean anything?  Nope, since all it takes is one direct hit.  We know where we live.  We know the hurricane risks.  Our 2 choices are to stay or flee.  When we get closer, I'll detail what you need to know.  Right now, it's April, and the weather is perfect, so don't think hurricanes until we need to.  For now, our upper pattern is keeping us dry.

Those 90s in Texas tell us the higher sun angle and longer days are making an impact.  We're not done with fronts, but they will no longer be cold.

We're about 2-3 weeks away from reaching..."It's almost hot".  Look for these lower humidities to linger for several more days.

Let's get out and enjoy this great weather.  A walk through the neighborhood or a bike ride along the Lakefront is ideal.  Stay tuned!