Goodbye Alvin, GFS At It Again? Good Feel Weekend Here

As we approach the start of the 2025 Hurricane Season, this blog will focus mainly on the Tropics, unless there is nothing going on. Ch. 8 has agreed to keep me on as their Hurricane Consultant for another season. I thank those of you who still enjoy my storytelling.  Today we have a weakening Tropical Storm in the Pacific and a long-range look at "Potential" development in the Caribbean.  Let's begin in the Pacific.

As NHC says, the satellite view of Alvin has "degraded" as he heads into cooler waters & stronger SW wind shear.  He will be no threat to the Baja except to bring some moisture and less hot temps to the Southwest.  The Tropical Atlantic remains dominated by Saharan Dust pouring westward off of Africa.

There are no signs of the Central America Gyre spinning off a disturbance into the Caribbean or Gulf for the next 7-10 days.  However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to go into the favorable (rising air) phase during the second week.  I grabbed this off of the AccuWeather site. They often love to go out beyond the 7 day period in giving a "heads up". Of course, the GFS again brings a system over Florida.

The middle graphic is valid for Monday PM June 9th.  The bottom is valid for Tuesday PM June 10th.  Yikes!  What do I think?  Well, I looked at the European and it has NOTHING. I am not good enough to forecast the weather 2 weeks in advance.  Until I see many models capturing the same feature, I'm not going to get nervous.  There is nothing there yet, so let's focus on an exciting feature that is bringing a late Spring front down to us. A deepening upper trough is diving down out of Canada over the Great Lakes.

It is bringing down a huge smoke plume from the nearly 100 forest fires in Canada.  It will also bring a front on through us later tonight.

As the upper flow shifts to the NW over the eastern states, look at the lower dew points/drier air just to our north.  You'll feel the difference when you go out to get your morning paper, if you still do that!

Most of today's storms have been to the south of New Orleans. We'll see several dry days before the humidity returns Monday PM.

I will be grilling steaks for my two dear lady grief support friends (Patricia & Becky) on Sunday PM.  It may be the last time we can eat outside comfortably until next October.  Get out and enjoy your weekend.  Stay tuned!