NHC began highlighting an area off the Carolina coast yesterday, indicating a very low (10%) chance for development later this week. Not saying it can't happen, but it has too many things working against development. Let's discuss. I'll begin with the NHC Outlook.
There is a large area of "disturbed weather" extending from south of Cuba northward from the eastern Gulf to the Bahamas. However, much of that activity is related to an UPPER LOW over the NE Gulf. Sometimes upper lows can work their way down to the surface, but most of the time they are our friend. In addition, there is a huge plume of Saharan dust that will add to the stability of the atmosphere. I just don't think we'll see any development with this system, unless it's a hybrid (cold core), more winter-like system that moves out to sea. Here's the dust forecast.
The rest of the Gulf & Caribbean remain quiet. However, the GFS continues to try to form a storm in the Gulf. Now, it's shifted from the second week of June to the third. The top graphic is valid for Wednesday, June 18th.
The bottom is valid for Thursday, June 19th, TWO WEEKS AWAY! I guess if you keep crying wolf, the wolf will eventually come. But c'mon, enough is enough already. No other model is on board. Stop letting the internet wanna bees get you nervous! In the short term...
The upper pattern over the country keeps away any extreme summer heat. There is a stalled frontal boundary across the Central Plains up to the Great Lakes. Strong storms with flooding rains are causing widespread issues. It's actually quite chilly behind the front.
The next real front here won't come until October. We saw a couple of daytime heating showers today (I received .08") and that will likely happen into the weekend.
So what I'll try to do this Hurricane Season is focus on the Tropics. That's what Ch. 8 pays me to be, your Hurricane Consultant. If you want daily, localized weather data, check with my colleagues at FOX 8. Stay tuned!
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