Yesterday NHC only gave a 10% chance for development along the Carolina coast for later this week. This morning they dropped those chances to zero, even though we still have a large area of disturbed weather/storms from the western Caribbean through the Carolinas and off the East Coast. Why? Because the whole area is a hostile environment of an upper trough and strong wind shear. I've marked out a surface boundary (yellow dashes) along which clusters of storms are focused.
Typically, anything that tries to form along old frontal boundaries is often a hybrid system (cold core) and not truly tropical. It doesn't mean you can't see significant impacts (heavy rains/flooding, beach erosion). As long as this area remains, folks along the East Coast should pay attention. My friends at AccuWeather continue to highlight an area for development. The top was from yesterday, while the bottom is from today.
As you know, until I see something on the satellite loops, I try to downplay development. I really like upper lows. Otherwise, the Tropics are dead, and they should stay that way. In fact, look at the new dust plume coming off of Africa.
That almost guarantees no development out there for 2-3 weeks. Historically, formation off of Africa doesn't kick in until late July and August. The GFS continues to form something in the Western Caribbean and over Florida in 12-14 days. It keeps flipping location daily and hasn't been right yet that far out in time. The top is valid for Tuesday, June 17th followed by the 18 & 19th.
The timeline doesn't fit the AccuWeather's June 9-13th period. Plus no other model "sees" this disturbance. Me thinks the GFS has bought some "bad weed" on the street?!!! Locally, it's all about boundaries in producing showers.
There are some showers around along the land/sea breeze interaction with the greater concentration east of Mobile. The major frontal boundary is stalled over the Plains. It will slowly over time sink closer to us.
It is cooler and drier behind the front while ahead of it the air is summertime soupy. 70+ dew points are as far north as St. Louis. I just don't think this front will ever get through us, but it could be close enough to raise our shower chances next week.
There are a few folks getting wet this afternoon. Otherwise, the heat is on Gang. Stay tuned!
No comments:
Post a Comment