Earliest Cat. 4 In EPAC, Heat Ridge Builds Over East Coast

Late yesterday, Hurricane Erick underwent rapid intensification just off the coast of Mexico and peaked at 145 mph making him the earliest Category 4 hurricane in the East Pacific Basin.  Compare that to Hurricane Audrey in 1957 when she slammed into SW Louisiana on June 27th as a Category 4 killing 416 people.  Audrey remains the earliest Cat. 4 Hurricane in the Atlantic/Caribbean Basin.  Here's the infrared satellite view of Erick at his peak with the well defined eye.

Clearly with his circulation over land, Erick is much weaker today.  Heavy rains are still the main issue as another 3-6" could fall all the way up to Puerto Vallarta.  Fortunately, the Atlantic basin remains quiet and we are likely to stay that way into July.  Compare that to last year when we had 3 named storms by early July.  I like quiet!

Our main issue for this weekend will be decreasing rain chances, resulting in hotter temperatures.  An upper ridge will drift to the East coast, replacing the Great Lakes upper trough.

Here are the GFS forecast maps, beginning with Saturday, followed by Saturday & Sunday into Monday.

The upper heat dome will grow stronger, but it will be centered far enough to our northeast to allow some daytime heating storms to develop.

Fronts typically stall well to our north, so our summer weather is driven by daytime heating, land/sea breeze boundaries or upper disturbances.  I'm thinking the upper high will be the controlling factor for the next several days.

If you've lived here long enough, you know it will rain somewhere in the summertime.  Yesterday, all the weather programs I watched indicated that Thursday would see higher rain chances.  I golfed with Marvin Bernstein & Ron Swoboda at Chateau with no problems.  It did rain a little after 1 PM in Kenner. This morning Zack pointed out MSY has had rain 6 straight days.  Today makes number 7.

And tomorrow could be number 8.  Just remember, the probability of precipitation has nothing to do with TIME.  A 70% chance of rain does NOT mean it will rain 70% of the time.  Always plan your day with rain gear handy.  Most of the time, you'll be OK.

Mid 90s will require daily heat advisories, but most people with common sense know that about the South.  It's not like that hasn't happened before.  Always stay hydrated in the heat.  Use sunscreen & wear hats.  Duh!  Stay tuned!