Wet Week To Continue, Tropics Remain Quiet

Basic summertime for us means each day will be hot (90+) & humid (dew points 70+) with spotty (30-50% coverage) T-Storms.  If we have an upper-level high build over us, T-Storm coverage will decrease to 10-20% or less, with highs soaring into the mid-to-upper 90s.  If we have a nearby upper low, T-Storm coverage will be "above normal" (60-80%), keeping temps 90 or below.  It appears we'll have a nearby upper low over Texas for the next 4-5 days, and that should keep our rain chances higher. The main jet stream has retreated far to our north with a slow-moving cutoff upper low over Texas.

As the upper flow splits over East Texas, that enhances the lift.  WPC's 5-day rain totals are centered right where the greatest lift is.

Computer guidance really doesn't move this feature very far between now & Sunday.  Some locations will see an additional 4-6"+ rainfall. There is a very weak leftover frontal boundary just to our north.

It's hard to find unless you look at the dew points.  50s have pushed down to Tulsa and Memphis, while south of the boundary we're in the 70s.

Today's storms have been more numerous south of Lake P.  Tomorrow might flip-flop. Where it rains, temps are cooler.

Until that upper low/weakness over Texas moves, expect daily storms probably above normal (40-60%+).  The good news is the Tropics look quiet for at least the next 7-10 days.

The ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) is active, but the Saharan Dust should keep the Atlantic quiet.  Also, there remains a lot of upper wind shear.  Keep it quiet! Stay tuned!