$10,000 Richer? Dexter Coming To Gulf?

2 weeks from today, someone will be $10,000 richer after winning the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo..  Our awards ceremony will be Saturday night, July 26t,h under the Otto Candies' pavilion on the east end of the Island.  It may go to a fisherman/woman, but it could go to you even if you don't fish or live here.  By registering ($55) at tarponrodeo.org, you will go into the hopper with less than 3,000 other registrants, and I could pull your name.  Those are very good odds, so go online to give yourself a chance to win.

Let's hope there's no tropical threat for the Rodeo.  The Tropical Atlantic remains dead due to the Sharan Dust layer.  The systems coming off of Africa are smothered by the sinking air. That should last into August.

The other factor this summer is much cooler (bluest colors) water temps over the MDR (Main Development Region).

Closer to home, NHC is highlighting an area over the Gulf for late this week.  Let's investigate as to what's going on.

There is an elongated old frontal boundary off the East Coast with an upper low approaching the Bahamas, moving to the west.  The upper low will reach South Florida on Tuesday and drift into the Gulf by Wednesday.  Will it develop a surface reflection and become a depression or storm?  NHC thinks not right now only giving a 20% chance.  Currently, the cluster of storms east of Jacksonville will drift to the south and be absorbed by the larger Bahama system.  Regardless, heavy rains are likely all along the Gulf coast later next week.

 

The 7-day rain totals are 4-6" for Florida & 3-5 here.

It's been another day of slow-moving heavy storms with vivid lightning just like yesterday.  It all depends on where the surface boundaries set up.

The clouds and rains are keeping us less hot. Expect little change on Monday before we dry out a little on Tuesday & Wednesday.

I'm encouraged by the models NOT developing a Gulf Storm.  Right now, it appears that the upper low over the Bahamas stays an upper low and doesn't develop a surface circulation.  Stay tuned!