If you remember last summer, through early August, not much had happened. But once into September into October, the Tropics went nuts with multiple storms being tracked at the same time. Things appear to be setting up the same way this year, with several potential disturbances forming.
NHC has increased the chances for the development of 97 L off of Africa to 90%. Translation? It will be named, but will it be Erin or Fernand? There is another system over the central Atlantic that could be named first (Erin, another fish storm?)
Early computer model runs recurve 97 L to the north before affecting the U.S. East coast. That's because the center of the Atlantic ridge remains well east of Bermuda.
Notice the lingering front/weakness along the Carolina coasts that should allow that curvature to occur. I'm a little concerned about all the swirls along the northern Gulf coast, including the cluster of storms west of Key West.
Computer models do nothing with any of these swirls, but it's something I'm watching since some are over water. NHC doesn't mention them yet.
Locally, today's storms again favor south of Lake P. A check of surface pressure indicates we need not worry about development right now. I did a test podcast last night that those of you who've subscribed can access. For those of you who are undecided, we have put the test below so you can see how we plan to start out.
We'll do another test podcast this evening just to make sure everything works on Monday. Check it out. I'd love to see more of you subscribe as the season is about to reach "Prime Time". It's a minimal charge ($2/month, $24 for yearly subscription) and I think many of you will enjoy my tropical storytelling that I did for nearly 40 years on Ch. 8. I don't scare, I prepare you to be ready when the threat comes. Evacuation is expensive, and I'm very empathetic about overwarning. Come join me, and I'll help you make decisions when we're threatened. Stay tuned!
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