The 5th named storm (Erin) is beginning the process of becoming a Hurricane. It has a way to go since Saharan dust is hanging around the northern and eastern sides. However, the farther it moves to the west, the less the dust and the warmer the sea surface temperatures. NHC is committed to Erin making the turn away from the U. S., but not all models agree. Let's begin with the dust and then go to the latest satellite views.
Several comments point out that Erin kept sinking lower in latitude and might not make the turn, bringing a danger to the Gulf. The latest coordinates say that sinking to the south has ended as Erin is now moving straight to the west (270 degrees). Clearly, the infrared color view has changed dramatically since yesterday.
Erin has a compact area of T-Storms around her center and NHC has increased sustained winds to 50 mph. Yesterday's track forecast ( top) had the northern Virgin Islands in the error cone.
The 4 pm advisory today (bottom) does not include PR or the Virgin Islands. NHC obviously does not believe in the European model westward shift today that brings the storm closer to the Carolina coast.
On the Spaghetti plots, the Euro appears to be the outlier. So, unless something crazy happens & most models are out to lunch, Erin will not be a threat to the U.S. East coast.
The same thinking is in place as to why Erin will make the turn. The current blocking high/Atlantic Ridge to the north is not expanding westward. The upper high over the SE is expected to drift westward over us, leaving an avenue along the East coast for a turn to occur. IF Erin keeps getting stronger, she will follow the NHC track.
That means she won't be a problem except maybe Bermuda.
There is a tropical wave moving across the Yucatan, and NHC only gives it a 10% chance to develop over the southern Gulf. For us, yesterday's boundary has lifted away to the NE.
Where it's rained, temps are less hot.
Without any tropical activity, daily heat & humidity with spotty storms continue.
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