Erin's Track Shifts, Caribbean, Gulf Disturbances Shouldn't Be Any Problems...

If you've been outside today, I don't need to tell you how it feels.  With dew points in the mid to upper 70s & temps around 90+, it's August awful!  This is a very tropical airmass with slow-moving T-Storms that can easily drop 1-2"+ in an hour.  But this is a Hurricane website, so let's start with what we're watching.

I've circled 4 areas that have swirls and some clusters of T-Storms.  Only the circle way out in the Atlantic has a name (Erin), with the rest just areas of interest.  The one way up north is going out to sea, so let's focus on the Caribbean & Gulf.

The most impressive T-Storm cluster is just offshore the northern coast of Nicaragua. It is drifting to the west, and the nearness to land should limit development.  NHC isn't even talking about it.  Shift to the Gulf, where we still have some kind of boundary near us. It appears there is a mid-level swirl just off the mouth of the river.

The color infrared view just has a bunch of disorganized showers with no concentrated center.  Surface pressures are slightly lower, but NHC or any models have this developing. The radar does give the hint of banding & rotation.

Again, nothing should happen since the mid-level swirl is so close to the coast, and we have strong NE shear over the eastern and southern Gulf.

So let's get back to the only named storm right now.  Tropical Storm Erin is struggling out over the open Atlantic.

I've circled the system that almost has no storms around it.  The latest NHC advisory keeps sustained winds are 45 mph with a very fast WSW motion of 22 mph.  Here's the NHC's latest forecast track on top with yesterday's on the bottom.

The past two advisories have the cone of error slightly south of yesterday's, just clipping the Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico.  However, all models agree that a turn to the north will happen when Erin gets stronger later this week

So what could go wrong and allow Erin to get closer to the East Coast of the U.S.? Erin doesn't strengthen as soon as expected, as weaker storms do not make the turn compared to stronger systems.  2) The Atlantic ridge strengthens westward, delaying the northward turn.  Yes, right now, all models indicate the turn will happen soon enough to leave the U.S. alone.  We have absolutely nothing to worry about from Erin, unless something goofy happens that models don't pick up on.  I'll go into a deep discussion on my podcast tonight.

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