Back in my on-air working days, I hated summer since the forecast was so often the same, and I knew no one paid attention. Before Katrina, I wanted Storms/Hurricanes in the Gulf since I knew that was my "Prime Time". My viewers were posted to our newscasts since we didn't have all the various access platforms that exist today. I've kept up a WVUE Facebook Hurricane Blog for the past 10 years & tonight we launch the Bob Breck Podcast that will supplement the limited wording I can post on FB. Fortunately, I have a lot to talk about.
Before I talk about Tropical Storm Erin way out in the Atlantic or the two circles far off the East Coast, look at the X in the Gulf. Go read my morning post, where I indicated there were several swirls across the northern Gulf. Since that post, Shower activity has increased, and NHC has at least pointed out the clusters of storms.
The infrared color view (middle) has clusters of disorganized storms, and it appears this disturbance is just a tropical wave of moisture moving to the west. Am I concerned that something might develop? Not really, since IF a system tried to form, it would have little time to develop and wouldn't be an evacuation-type storm. Surface pressures are slightly lower than yesterday, and we need to pay attention just because it could bring us some heavy rain totals late Tuesday into Wednesday. I will have further discussions on tonight's Podcast, which you won't receive unless you subscribe.
The cost is a one-time yearly fee of $24 ($2/month). During a Gulf tropical threat, the Podcast will be offered 2-3 times a day. For August through mid-October, plan on one a day. During the quiet months, it'll be once or twice a week, with the focus shifting from Hurricanes to Why the weather? and interviews with some popular figures in and outside our community. We welcome topics that appeal to you, our viewers, so go sign up and get ready to hear & see the man you trusted for 4 decades.. Now, back to Erin, the farthest eastern circle.
Actually, the bigger red blob coming off of Africa looks more impressive, and that might be the next name (Fernand?) But Erin is so far out that no one should have any concerns/fears now. All models bring it westward and make her a Major (Cat. 3) Hurricane by this weekend. Unless something crazy happens, Erin will make the turn to the north BEFORE impacting the United States. Bermuda could have issues down the road. So why the turn? The top graphic is the surface map from WPC.
The middle graphic is my drawing over the satellite view showing the Atlantic Ridge extending westward to around north of Puerto Rico. That's where the turn to the north should occur this coming weekend. Most Spaghetti plots are clustered in that solution. So what could go wrong? That will be part of my New Podcast that begins this evening. Go sign up and enjoy the kind of storytelling you enjoyed for 4 decades. Stay tuned!
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