Gulf Caribbean Zero For September, Gabrielle Getting Better Organized, Will Miss Islands, Brush Bermuda

 I have been tracking Hurricanes here for 47 years and have to go back to 1992 (Hurricane Andrew) to remember a more quiet hurricane season.  The "experts" are giving many reasons for little activity (too much shear, Saharan Dust, less hot SSTs), but what I want to know is how could everyone miss this?  All forecasters called for an above normal season, and it still could reach double digit named storms.  However, as we reach October, the tropical threat for the NORTHERN GULF decreases dramatically.  And that is what my next guest, Bryan Norcross, says on next week's podcast.  

It's a fascinating interview where Bryan recalls how he got into broadcasting (former News Director, CNN Producer), how he ended up in Miami and dealt with Andrew & why his gut tells him Texas & Louisiana are 90% safe from any hurricane threats this year.  BUT, you can't hear or see him unless you sign up to my podcast at bobbreck.com.  For $2/month, it's a no brainer.  So let's get to the Tropics where T.S. Gabrielle is starting to organize as it reaches warmer waters.

Her center of circulation is no longer exposed like yesterday with bursts of T-Storms erupting near her center.  NHC expects Gabrielle to become our 2nd hurricane becoming a Cat. 2 as it stays to the east of Bermuda

Like the storms before her, all models predict a turn to the north away from the United States.  The rest of the Atlantic should stay quiet due to an unusually strong burst of Saharan dust.

So with the MDR dead for the rest of this season, we focus on the Caribbean & Gulf.  

Upper lows are NE of the Bahamas with another down in the Central Caribbean. Upper lows create wind shear.  We are protected by strong upper WNW winds that would deflect any tropical threat to our east.  No models bring a threat towards us for the rest of September.  What we want is another cold front, but the real cold air is back over Alaska.

We also need some rain, but when in drought, leave it out.  

Temperatures are getting cooler up north, but it appears we'll have to wait until next weekend to see any of that.

Some storms are to our north, but the chances locally will be slim & none this weekend meaning more 90+ temps.

I've been watering my plants & grass, but we all could use a good soaking. Not happening this weekend.  Fall begins on the 22nd but it'll still feel like summer.  Enjoy your weekend & stay tuned!