NHC Decreases Development Of Invest 99 L, Models Appear Clueless, Weekend Cold Front

For the past several days, several models were developing an Atlantic disturbance into a Tropical Storm or Hurricane and bringing it towards the U.S coastline in 12-14 days.  Today, poof, it's gone.  Not weakened, just gone.  NHC is not giving up as they still have an area to watch out in the MDR (Main Development Region).  They have reduced the chances for development from yesterday's 90% down to 70%, which seems rather generous based on satellite views. 

And NHC mentions the persistent flow of Saharan Dust, which is usually gone by September for limiting any development.  Whether it's the dust, an unfavorable MJO, or too strong upper wind shear...we don't care.  The fewer the storms, the better.  If we are to see something spring up in the next 2-3 weeks, it will be closer to home.  There is an upper low well off the East Coast with a minor tropical wave down in the Caribbean.  An old boundary remains from the Gulf up the East Coast.

There actually is a weak swirl over the eastern Gulf, but strong upper winds are not allowing any development.  IF we see something from, it might be just east of Florida this weekend.  We are protected from tropical systems by an unusually deep upper trough over the eastern states that will even bring us a noticeably cooler air mass for Sunday PM into Tuesday.

You can see a stream of Pacific moisture (leftover from Lorena) surge across the Plains and that might allow some showers ahead of the cold front here.  Models are not bullish on that, and the front will likely come through mostly dry.

Looking at both temperatures & dew points, you can clearly see where the front is.  The drier air will mainly be felt during the overnight & morning hours, as our days will still be almost hot.

One lone storm bubbled up on the South Shore around 3 PM.  Cooled some folks off.

The FOX 8 extended only has the North Shore dropping into the 60s.  My thinking is that many locations will see some 50s on Sunday & Monday mornings.  Nice.  We still have a major hurricane out in the EPAC.

Locally, we're quiet for now, but that doesn't mean our Hurricane Season is over.  My new podcast expands on my WVUE Facebook posts, and you can find it at bobbreck.com.  The cost is $2/month for those of you who enjoyed seeing and hearing me on TV for 38+ years.  Give it a try.  Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned!