Look, we all remember how wrong the early model forecasts were on Katrina 20 years ago. It was expected to turn into the Florida Panhandle east of Apalachicola, but the next model run shifted it way left into SE LA/MS. Model technology has vastly improved during the past 20 years, BUT there is still great model UNCERTAINTY once out beyond 7 days. Yesterday I showed you the GFS forecast 2 weeks out, taking a storm into the Carolina coast. Look at the difference on today's run with yesterday's on top.
Instead of taking our next named storm (Gabrielle) into South Carolina, today's run threatens South Florida. Quite a flip from the previous day, and it's why you must not allow those alarmists to talk about model solutions at two weeks as if there is great skill involved. Should it get our attention? Sure, but let's remember the UNCERTAINTY. Until we get under 5 days, we shouldn't get nervous/anxious about something that might never be our problem. Those of you who subscribe ($2/month) to my new podcast learned of my concerns for the second half of September. It's so easy to join the conversation at bobbreck.com & click the "subscribe to podcast" button.
The internet is alive with many showing the various model solutions. Has there been a shift in the potential track? Yes. Does that mean it could come into the Gulf? Possibly, but at 10-14 days out, no decisions can be made regarding where the threat MIGHT go. My suggestion is to use this weekend to make sure you have your hurricane supplies ready. Get to the grocery store for last-minute stuff that will fly off the shelves (water, canned goods). If you are prepared for a potential storm, you will have less stress/anxiety when deciding to stay or leave. That's what my podcast is all about. Helping you make the correct decision. Give it a try for 7 cents a day. It's a no-brainer. So let's get to the Tropics. Nothing jumps out on the wide satellite view.
NHC is highlighting an area for development over the MDR, increasing chances to 90%. They have labeled it Invest 91L so forecast models can be run.
What should be obvious is that there isn't much there yet. That's not surprising since it's dealing with some Saharan Dust and water temps are cooler out there. It will take several days for this system to really get going. Plenty of time to watch it, but today's model runs have definitely shifted farther to the south, and that increases impacts to the Leeward Islands by this weekend. More on tonight's podcast.
There are several boundaries producing clusters of storms mainly from the eastern Gulf up the East coast. Shear is king here, so no development is expected. In fact, as long as the current upper trough over the eastern states remains, we will have no tropical threats locally into next week.
Zack showed this graphic that indicated the front coming for next week will have the core of the chill to our north & east, but we should get into much drier air.
Each front will be getting cooler and those folks over the northern plains are wearing the heavier coats today. It's still plenty hot down South with no showers anywhere.
There is relief coming for next week and this could be our last week of the 90 degree heat?!!! Yippee! Finally...
Hurricane Kiko will weaken as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands, but it still should be a decent Tropical Storm. It might bring issues for folks trying to vacation there next week. No such issues here, but signs indicate the second half of September will not remain quiet. Sign up for my Podcast before the threat develops in the Gulf at bobbreck.com. Stay tuned!
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