Delta Coming to Northern Gulf...

Before I begin, let me clarify my last post where I mentioned another blog post, TropicalTidbits.   I have never been to that post, don't know who runs it so I didn't mean to criticize THAT person.  I mentioned those of you who do go to that site and then mention it on my site.  You are the ones who I called "doom & gloomers".  For full disclosure, I pay/subscribe to WeatherBell Analytics run by Joe D'Aleo & Joe Bastardi.   They have been long time friends and I use their experience to help guide me.  Now back to weather.

NHC has designated 92L "Potential Tropical cyclone " 26 and it will become T.S. Delta on Monday.  Their first track looks ominous as it develops PTC 26 into a Cat. 2 hurricane in the central Gulf and turns it towards Louisiana with NOLA as the Bullseye.  You all know my feelings regarding being the bullseye at 5 days.  Enough said.   Should you be worried?  Not yet as there is so much uncertainty with these future forecasts when we'll have 2 storms in the Gulf at the same time.  How will they interact?  Will they rotate (Fujiwhara effect) when they get close to each other?  Which one will get stronger/weaker?  So much uncertainty.  In fact, one model (Canadian) brings PTC 26 into the northern Gulf & weakens it with Gamma lingering over the southern Gulf before moving northward into Florida east of us.   I would not bank on any of these early solutions.

Satellite views have 2 clusters of clouds with one over the eastern Gulf down into the Yucatan and the other over the Caribbean.  IF PTC 26 has a center, it's south of Jamaica where there is a developing cluster of storms.   As I mentioned in my last post, i expect it will get stronger in the short term becoming a hurricane and moving over the "loop current" in the souther Gulf.  Normally, that would be a bad thing if we were in August or September, but the Gulf is way different now.

Meteorologist Zack Fradella used a graphic that clearly shows why PTC 26 should develop since it's over the warmest waters of the Caribbean.   However, look at the Gulf.   There has been a dramatic cooling during the past 2 weeks since Laura & Sally.   Call me crazy, but that in itself should mean whatever forms will begin to weaken as it heads towards the coast.  In addition, IF the center line track goes to our right (east), we'll end up with very little impacts much like Sally.  For now, NHC does make it a 100 mph Cat. 2 Hurricane in 2 days.   And what about Gamma?

NHC says the center has stalled north of the Yucatan and will move little for the next 2-3 days.   I can't help but stress UNCERTAINTY is the main word with either of these systems.  No need to get anxious when we might not have to.

Surface high pressure continues to block any northward movement of Gamma.  We have enjoyed a great feel weekend that will slowly change as tropical moisture returns as the high shift eastward.  Let's chill out Gang as there is nothing that makes me nervous just yet. Even then, IF PTC 26 (Delta) does impact us, it's October, waters are cooler and history tells us these systems turn BEFORE they get to us.  Stay tuned & keep watching!