Winter 2/3rd Over !

We have completed the 1st 2 months of "Meteorological" winter with one left to go. Historically, the threat of a hard (pipe busting) freeze ends around Feb 20th although we still can get light freezes well into March. The next 2 weeks sure looks like the "El Nino" pattern is locked in place with fast moving ststems racing across the southern U.S & Gulf coast. this keeps the core of any cold air far to our north but it also brings us rainy periods every 3-4 days. This week will see a minor system fly by late Monday into early Tuesday with a stronger system arriving late Thursday into Friday. In between, Tuesday PM & Wednesday appear dry & pleasantly cool.

As mentioned, FOX 8 has purchased 2 completely stand alone HD weather graphic systems. It involves extensive re-wiring and that is why our satellite & radar loops plus Marine and Extended forecast are not currently available. You will notice the high resolution graphics coming during the next few days and weeks. We are working hard to remain YOUR WEATHER AUTHORITY.

Times-Pic had an editorial yesterday about more intense hurricanes in the future(Maybe?) They failed to print the "peer reviewed" article in February's NATURE stating that the warming from increased CO2 was vastly over played as reported in the 2007 IPCC report. More and more reports are surfacing regarding that the "science" behind Global Warming is flawed, and in some cases just wrong.

FOX 8 Weather is HD...

Perhaps some of you have noticed our web graphics stopped updating this afternoon. We had to pull the plug while we made the switch to 2 new stand alone HD weather graphic systems. Hopefully we'll have the web graphics going within a day or two. Our new weather systems are Baron Service's Omni (also maker of our VIPIR) and WSI's TruView Max. They both allow us to do special graphics that you have never seen before. They will allow us to inform you with understandable, easy to watch graphics that will also keep you entertained. Hope you enjoy the new look and it will be an on going process during the next few weeks/months as we learn how to use each system to their full capacity.

Our weather will be sharply colder but all the rain is gone. It's back to heavy coats and sweaters gang.

Stormy Friday, Colder Weekend...

This week has seen 3 sunny days without any clouds, but that will change on Thursday as moisture surges out of the Gulf ahead of our next area of low pressure. We'll see temperatures warm to 65-70 Thursday and 70-75 on Friday before winter returns Friday night into Saturday. There may be some strong storms as a cold front sweeps across Louisiana, but NWS says the severe threat doesn't look very high. The upper trough driving this front will not deepen and that will keep the core of the cold to our north. Never the less, highs Saturday and Sunday will struggle to get out of the 40s with brisk north winds. It's back to the heavy weather gear for 2 days. The cold retreats on Monday as another system will bring a rain threat by late in the day.

I lost my voice on Sunday during the Saint's tailgating show on FOX 8. It hasn't come back yet. Many of my friends who were in the Dome have the same problem. Screaming for 3 hours will do that! Never fear, I'll have it back by game time (Super Bowl). Go Saints!

More Intense Hurricanes Coming? Huh?

Yep, just as we're basking in the Saint's win, I'm reminded of the headlines in the Picayune saying..."More Intense Hurricanes Expected". Expected by whom? The usual AGW Alarmists who say in 80-100 years we could see more Cat. 4 & 5 storms. Really? Is this new news? Nope, been said before and refuted by none other than former NHC Director Dr. Neil Frank and Dr. Chris Landsea, lead Hurricane Researcher. Both say the research is nonsense, yet a science journal publishes this kind of can't be verified nonsense. When will the public say enough is enough. You fudge data, you restrict debate, you lie over and over...oh, and you continue to take our tax payer funded NSF grants. Shameful.

Back to the real world of Weather...this week we'll be seasonally cool to start with a brief warm up Thursday & Friday. Friday could turn stormy with much colder air arriving for the weekend. AT THIS TIME, it doesn't appear to be any worse than a light freeze on the Northshore Sat. & Sun. mornings. Hummm...31+ years at Ch. 8 is why I wear # 31. Shouda known that would be our lucky number!

Playoffs? Playoffs? R U Kiddin' Me? Miami Baby!

In my 62+ years on this planet, there are certain things that you remember more than others. Like Martin Luther King's "I have a dream" speech in the late 60s. One other phrase that I'll always remeber is Richard Nixon's when he resigned. He said..." only when you've been in the deepest darkest valley do you know how glorious it is on the mountain top". We're not there yet, but tonight's Saint's win is something special for those of us who have been in those valleys with the Saints. Jackie Gleason would tell his wife..."to the Moon alice". Well the Super Bowl seemed to be that far away for previous Saint's teams. Jackie would also tell Alice ..."how sweet it is". Indeed, HOW SWEET THIS IS! Let's enjoy the next 2 weeks.

Oh, this weeks weather? A little colder...but who cares ! Go Saints !!!

Let's Enjoy the Ride...

My 1st Saint's season was 1978 when the Saints went 7-9 with Thunder (Muncie) & Lightning (Galbreath). 1979 brought our 1st 8-8 season and the city was looking forward to 1980. Yikes! 1980 brought 1-15 and the bagheads. Who da thought it would take us 30 more years for a shot at the Super Bowl? (Buddy D?) Well, here we are...on the brink of something special. I think it will be our fans...the 12th man...that will will our guys to victory. I'll be on the FOX 8 tailgating Special Sunday 2-5 PM wearing my "game face". Going to the Dome? Make sure you have your game face on cuz we may not have this good a chance for the Super Bowl for years to come. Go Saints!!!

Oh...the weekend weather will be warm & spring-like, 70's with only a few showers Saturday night. Colder next week...even colder next weekend, but let's just enjoy one weekend at a time!

Great Weather NFL...

We have another great weather day coming on Friday, but at this time of the year, it's Not For Long. A fast moving southern jet stream will bring a storm that is pounding California tonight across the Gulf South late Saturday into Sunday. It will be moving so fast that I don't think the deep Gulf moisture will have time to work into it. Tonight's VIPIR run gives us little or no rain Saturday evening between 7-11 PM. Sunday's tailgating weather should be fine as skies clear and highs will be near 70. Colder air arrives on Monday and it will bring back the coats & jackets. In the short term, some dense sea fog remains along the mouth of the river and that could overspread us Saturday morning before the winds increase later in the day.

And now my Saint's prediction. I too agree with CAVEMAN and Bourbon St. Blues...it will be a close game, a nail bitter...until a turnover in the 4th quarter gives the Saints control. I don't feel it will be a real high scoring game. Saints 24 Vikings 20 with Vikings driving in the final minute, but Sharper makes an interception inside the 10 yd. line to preserve the win. Do we stop with the Playoffs ? As Coach Mora once said..."are you kiddin' me? Playoffs? Playoffs?" Nah, it's on to Miami & da Super Bowl. Go Saints !!!

Stormy Night Far North...

As we approach the start of our severe weather season (Feb-Mar), I hope today's activity doesn't foretell what this El Nino Spring will bring us. Although we had numerous warnings, NWS said they had no damage reports. Looking ahead, we have another front expected to bring more storms Saturday night into early Sunday. Right now it's too soon to say how strong they might be. In the short term, Thurs, Fri, & most of Sat. will be dry and fairly warm. The next real cold won't arrive until early next week when we'll be back to sweaters and jackets.

I'll have my Saint's/ Vikings prediction tomorrow night.

January Thaw?

Up North every January it seems to finally warm up a little after weeks of brutal cold. They call it the January Thaw. Down South we call our warm up after several weeks of "brutal" cold Spring-like. Yep, that's what it felt like today as we finally reach 70 for the 1st time since Christmas Eve. The rest of this week will stay spring-like with highs in to 70s, but we'll have 2 bouts with stormy weather. The 1st will be late Wed. into Thursday, although the heavier storms should be to our north. The 2nd stronger system will arrive late Sat. into early Sunday. Behind it will be a return to colder air for the start of next week.

A mentor of mine is John Coleman who founded The Weather Channel. Last week he broadcast a special report regarding the Global Warming Hoax on his station in San Diego. You can view it at www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/81583352.html. It will show you why we shouldn't trust our government regarding weather data.

Cold January? You Bet !

Since all my past local records were drowned in Katrina, I can only easily go back to 2006 to look up daily highs/lows/rainfall. Not surprisingly, Jan. 2010 has been MUCH colder than the previous 4 years. For instance, Jan. 2010 has already had 8 days of freezing or below vs about 3 days for the 4 previous Jan. January highs 70 or warmer are even more telling...2006 15, 2007 7, 2008 8, 2009 11. 2010 ZERO !!! Yea I know we still have 13 days left and we will top 70 several times this week, but we're gonna have to start warming up quickly to approach about 8-10 days of 70+.

With warmer air coming returning, my focus turns back to severe weather. SPC has us in the "slight" risk area for late Wed. into Thursday. With such fast westerly upper winds, the surface threat should be limited to just straight line winds and not tornadoes. A stronger system still off the West Coast will give us another severe weather threat late Saturday into early Sunday. Stayed tuned.

Yikes...yet another alarmist forecast regarding sea level rises of 7-20+ feet on www.icecap.us

Shorts & Tank Tops Again?

The last time we were 70 or above was on Christmas Eve. That's almost a month ago, so when we top 70 this week(very likely), many folks will say it feels much warmer since we have endured 4 weeks of below normal temperatures. Don't be surprised to see folks peel off the clothes as they exercise or sit out in the sun. Of course as I mentioned, a warmer pattern is usually a wetter pattern and that appears what's ahead for the next 10-14 days. California is getting hammered tonight and that system will be here Wed-Thurs. Expect a rain system in the southern stream about every 3-4 days for the rest of this month.

How 'bout Dem Saints! Those of you who channel surf to compare different weathercasts had to be impressed with the VIPIR forecast on Friday night. While NWS correctly called for 100% chance for rain on Saturday, I showed the VIPIR Forecast that clearly indicated a break in the rain after 9 AM thru about 3 PM. Since FOX 8 was doing a live 12-2:30 PM broadcast, our management didn't want it to rain during that time frame. Watching the other channels, NONE of them said 100% chance for rain DOES NOT MEAN it will rain 100 % of the time. They all indicated Saturday would be a washout (2-4" possible). It WAS a dreary day, but most of the tailgating was done without any rain. Cudos to our VIPIR model.

Heavy Coats Goodbye, Hello Umbrellas...

After a record wet December, the 1st 2 weeks of January have been very cold and mostly dry with only .24" falling at MSY. That is about to change as the well advertised upper air pattern shift is well underway. We're going back to those Gulf lows again with the 1st in a series coming here Friday night into Saturday. Most of Friday should be dry with the rain spreading in from the south after 3 PM. Heaviest rains arrive between 6 PM & 2 AM with NWS calling for 2-3". Saturday will see some lingering showers but there should be some dry periods too for Saint's tailgating. It'll remain cool but not cold with temps. in the 50s. Sunday looks much brighter as the rain pulls away. The next Gulf low approaches next Wednesday.

Time for my Saint's prediction..............Saints 38 Cardinals 24 Go Saints!!! Wear Black & Gold to work on Friday.

Another Gulf Low Coming...

With the upper air pattern beginning to shift back to a more active southern stream, you can expect a return to a wetter regime for the next couple of weeks. The first in a series of Gulf Lows will form late Thursday. The VIPIR run tonight takes this low well south of the LA. coast meaning we will not get into the warm air sector. It starts the rain Friday afternoon and has most of it east of us by daybreak on Saturday. That would be good for Saint's tailgaiters, however, other models are much slower. Rain totals could be 1-2" and it will be a cold rain at that. Stay tuned.

January Thaw Coming...

It won't be dramatic this week, but after Wednesday morning's near freezing temps, it appears we may not see any more freezes the rest of this month. Why? Because the deep east coast trough will reposition itself over the west coast allowing for a resumption of the Gulf Lows to develop - yick! That will keep the freezes away but it'll also bring back the wet pattern of December. In the short term, Tuesday will be slightly warmer with highs lower 50s at best, mid 50s on Wed, near 60 Thurs and 60+ Fri & Sat. The end of the week still looks stormy and we could see some heavy rainfall Friday nite into Saturday. Stay tuned.

OK...according to my certified master plumber, you only need to run a PENCIL THIN STREAM of COLD water...unless you have NOT wrapped any exposed pipes under your house. So the # 1 precaution is to have the pipes wrapped. # 2 would be to run only the COLD water unless you haven't done # 1. Since most of us have slab homes with no exposed pipes, running the hot water will only use more energy.

Pattern Change Coming...

It's another hard freeze night as lows will be in the teens northshore and low 20s south. Most of the plants in my yard have been hammered and I'll have to do some serious cutting back. My citrus trees so far appear to be OK. The good news is computer models are finally changing the east coast trough and repositioning it back over the west coast by late this week. That will result in much milder air (60s) by Thursday and Friday. A piece of energy moves across the southern states late Friday into Saturday bringing us a significant rain threat. Too soon to go into much detail regarding timing and severity. It could mean tailgating for the Saint's game Saturday might be wet?

Here's a question for you. On nights like this where the lows will be 20-25, to be safe you need to run a "pencil thin" stream of water in a faucet farthest from where your water line enters your home. Does it matter or help to run hot water vs. cold? My Master Plumber has the answer but I'd like your ideas plus reasons. thanks.

Better Than Hurricanes !!!

OK, I'm sick of all this cold, but I was looking at the positive side...cold air = NO Hurricanes. In fact, when was the last time you had to evacuate because of cold air? Yea, maybe we get a bad ice storm & power goes out, but that is a once in a lifetime event here. In addition, we only have the cold weather for 2-3 months while the heart of hurricane season goes nearly 4 months. The more I think about it, I'm getting to like this cold...nah!

Satellite loops indicate clearing skies approaching from the NW. That should allow further cooling before daybreak. The next 2 nights will be equally as cold or colder as the center of the high pressure moves over us. A warm up begins during the day on Monday and should last all of next week. Next rain coming late Thursday into Friday when it could get stormy. Have a warm weekend !

Computers Say No to Snow...

Yea I know, even tonight's VIPIR run keeps all Gulf moisture far to our south Friday and Friday night. However, satellite loops clearly show another disturbance over New Mexico rotating around the deep east coast trough. Cloud tops are brightening and radar returns are showing up, however, the air mass is so dry that much of the falling snow is not reaching the ground. So the question is...what happens "IF" Gulf moisture begins pulling back northward ahead of this approaching disturbance? Several things are certain about Friday...1) it will be very cold and windy, 2) any sunshine will be filtered by lots of high, thin clouds. The real question is will this upper disturbance bring enough moisture back over the shallow dome of cold surface air to produce any snow for us? I like what ONLYREAL said last night...20-30% possibility. Remember, most significant snows here are surprise snows. Stay tuned !

Record Cold Coming...???

Hummm...haven't heard much about Global Warming now that half of the Globe is in a deep freeze. TWC always pushes record highs, but rarely mentions record lows. Bias? Nah ! As ONLYREAL mentioned, we'll only see rain on Thursday as all the moisture will be gone before we're cold enough to change over to snow. You snow lovers only hope is for a wave to form on the front down in the Gulf throwing up enough moisture into the cold air on Saturday morning. Possible? yes. Likely? No. The main concern is HOW COLD? NWS is thinking 14-18 North Shore for Sat & Sun. morning with 20-25 South Shore. Obviously that would cause some problems with our pipes this weekend. No need to run the water tonight, but that will change for Sat & Sun. mornings. Looking down the road...the warm up will be very slow. Might not get above 50 until Wednesday of next week so enjoy today's "warmth" as it won't last. In addition, an upper disturbance could really bring us another strong Gulf Low late next week. Only 9 more weeks until Spring ! Get those freeze precautions/preparations done tomorrow.

Several Hard Freezes...

Yikes! Way too cold for me. Looking at tonight's VIPIR run...NO signs of a "wintry mix" that NWS is talking about north of I-12. Just think we'll warm into the 50s Thursday AM and by the time freezing temps return, all moisture will be long gone. VIPIR drives the front way down into the Gulf with NO signs of any moisture coming back up over the cold air on Saturday. I still think that is a slim possibility. Bottom line is another even colder blast of Arctic air arrives for this weekend. NWS says this will be the coldest we've seen since Feb. 1996 when MSY dropped to 16 on Feb. 5th. Will need to run that pencil stream of water so pipes don't freeze. Stay tuned. Kind of funny watching the reporters shiver down at the Orange Bowl tonight.

Snow Possibilities ???

NWS has come out with a Winter Weather Advisory thru SUNDAY! They believe we could see a change over to sleet/snow Thursday (I think we'll be too warm). I believe our better chance comes on Saturday. Why? The cold that follows Thursday's cold front is much colder than what we have now and we'll be deep into that Arctic air mass as low pressure forms down in the central Gulf. Could we see "inches" of snow? Depends how far northward Gulf moisture moves, but my gut tells me YES! We could easily be down into the upper teens on the South Shore Sunday AM "IF" we have a snow cover. What a week to keep up on the weather !

Check out ICECAP.US for an interesting article by Dr. Neil Frank, former Director of NHC. At a time when much of the Northern Hemisphere is experiencing record cold and snow, Neil's comments are right on.

Cold Coming In Waves...Snow NOT expected Here.

Alright Gang, I'm back from my trip to Arkansas where AM lows were 25-28. As I mentioned in my last blog update last Thursday, this is a well advertised cold spell coming for the next week to ten days. We will see the coldest weather in several years, however, it will be no where near the record cold snap of Dec. 1989. I see where NWS is saying mid-upper 20s north shore for tomorrow with the south shore near freezing. That sounds about right since it looks like a cloud cover may overspread us before daybreak. Tuesday morning looks colder with even colder temps for Saturday morning. Even then, it looks no worse than upper teens north shore and 24-28 southshore. Why not colder? From what I see, the East coast trough doesn't dig deep enough (like back in 1989) to force the core of the cold over us. Also, we will see some moisture ahead of the Friday cold surge, but temperatures should warm into the 50s on Thursday and all the moisture will be long gone before we get cold enough for any frozen precip. That could change and I'll have daily blog updates. Bottom line, preparations should be completed to mitigate any damage from these cold snaps. All tropical plants should be covered or moved inside. Right now citrus trees should be OK since they can handle temps in the mid to upper 20s. My basic pipe rule from my master plumber, the late Mickey Scholl states..." pipes start to have freezing problems once the temperatures get down to 28 degrees and below and (this is important) stay there for 4 hours or longer. We don't expect that overnight on the South Shore, so you don't need to run any pencil thin stream of water. Perhaps tomorrow night or later in the week. Stay tuned.

Dawn Brown's 1st day at FOX 8 is Tomorrow. I'll let you know when she'll be showing up on-air.